Assessing the feasibility of using the ADOPT model to support RD&E investment decisions in the UK

Abstract

Agricultural innovation delivers value only when new ideas are adopted by farmers, making adoption a critical consideration in research, development and extension (RD&E) investment. This project evaluates whether the Adoption Diffusion Outcome Prediction Tool (ADOPT) can improve early-stage assessment of UK agricultural RD&E proposals. ADOPT estimates the likely speed and extent of innovation uptake by considering factors such as farmer characteristics, innovation attributes, learning processes, and perceived risks and benefits. The research aims to determine whether the tool can help funders and applicants identify adoption barriers, predict uptake, and target support to maximise innovation outcomes.

Description

Strategic investment in research, development and extension (RD&E) in the UK has not achieved desire outcomes, especially when compared to other developed economies (Lowenberg-DeBoer et al., 2022). Time lags between realising benefits from RD&E investment are significant and often not considered in detail at a project level (Monjardino et al., 2020; Yang & Zydenbos, 2021). To make better investments in innovation, technology and AKIS programs, there is potentially significant benefits gained from more rigorous ex ante analysis of funding proposals to inform funders decision making (Kuehne et al., 2012; Pannell, 1999). 

The ADOPT tool (de Oca Munguia et al., 2021; Kuehne et al., 2017) can be used to predict adoption of innovations[1]. For a target population of end users, the tool provides a framework to predict rates of adoption and time to peak adoption[2] for agricultural innovations and AKIS programs. It has been previously applied to the assessment of large-scale industry funded investments in other countries[3] and is often integrated with the cost-benefit analysis of RD&E initiatives (Botha et al., 2015). This approach could potentially be used to underpin the assessment of alternative projects, including providing information about expected industry uptake, risks and economic returns from investment (de Oca Munguia et al., 2021; Kuehne et al., 2012).

There is a need to develop a bespoke UK centric framework to support applicants applying for funding (private or public) and/or support expert assessors in considering the likely impact of proposed projects. This could help applicants to explore drivers and barriers to innovation adoption pre-application and aid with defining impact pathways and impact assessment. It could also provide a more rigorous framework for funders to assess the impact of proposals and enhance their decision making when comparing alternative projects for funding. The aim of this project is to assess whether ADOPT can be used by UK funders and applicants to better understand adoption drivers and barriers before projects are funded. In practical terms, this means asking whether the model can help identify which innovations are likely to be taken up, which barriers may slow adoption, and where RD&E support could be targeted to improve outcomes.